Okay, obviously someone has to win the tournament, but every team has a demonstrated a fatal flaw that could prevent them from being able to cut down the nets at the end of the year.
I'll start with Syracuse. The Orange are well rounded, play good defense, average close to 90 points a game, play in the toughest conference in the land in the Big East (anyone who says it's the Big 12 is just plain nuts) and have guys like Andy Rautins and Wes Johnson, who can and have make big shots when needed and the best sixth man in the country in Kris Joesph. Their fundamental flaw, carelessness. They average 15.3 turnovers per game. For a team that wants to win it all that is way to many. When Rautins exits the game the offense often becomes stagnant, unless Scoop Jardine is going off like he did against Villanova, and Anyone who has watched the Cuse a lot this year however know that is not always the case and in fact, Jardine almost cost the Orange a win against UConn in the dome earlier this season. I will admit that he is playing better thought, but no the less, if Syracuse continues to turn the ball over as frequently as they do it will cost them at some point in the tourney. Also the status of Arinze Onuaku is huge. He went down today (Thursday, March 11) and if he is seriously hurt that could spell trouble for the boys in orange.
Kentucky: They are just too young. When your best two players are freshman as good as DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall, you can go far, but win it all? I'm not convinced. Both of those guys know they are going to be lottery picks and at some point, the question of how much do these guys really want it has to be asked. In the Wildcats loss to South Carolina, coach John Calipari even pointed out his team's inexperience saying, "This is what happens when you have young guys who think we're going to win at the last minutes of the game." In their other loss to Tennessee, Kentucky went 2-22 from three-point land, which is abyssmal, but with the inside talent of Cousins and junior Patrick Patterson, who is no slouch himself averaging 14.9 points a game, wouldn't you think that a team that frigid from the three would stop shooting and try to feed the ball to the big fellas? If they learn that they can't always pull out a last second win and that when you miss 15 trey's you might want to go to the low post game, then they could be very, very dangerous, but I just don't see it happening.
Duke: Similiar to many Duke teams in the past, they are too reliant on outside shooting and have no real inside presence. Guards Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith and forward Kyle Singler, who is basically a guard do all the scoring for the Blue Devils. The trio averages 53.3 points a game while Duke as a team averages just 70.2 points a game. If they have an off shooting night or run into a team with even a decent big man they will fall. Starting center Brian Zoubek is about 20 times better than he was last year and he is still awful to watch. A friend of mine put it best when he said that he shouldn't start for any major Division 1 program.
Kansas State: To tell you the truth I really like K-State. They have balance. They play defense. They are solid on the road and have a very underappreciated star in Jacob Pullen (18.5 points per game). Coach Frank Martin has done a good job getting this team to play well in big games, but they are just not quite there yet. In a gritty overtime loss to Kansas, the Wildcats couldn't capatilize on several opportunites to win the game and blew a much needed box out when they were down one. I can see them (depending on the draw) making it to the Elite 8, but perhaps because they are a fresh face in terms of dominant college basketball programs, they won't be entering NCAA greatness, at least not this year.
Purdue: With Robbie Hummel they were easily the least recognized contender for a National Championship, without him they still won't get any love, especially from me. Don't get me wrong, E'twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson are solid, but with Hummel done for the year they are desperately missing a scorer. Boilermakers' coach Matt Painter said, "It's no secret we go through three guys. A lot of games this year, two of those three guys would score well offensively and allow that other guy to have an off night. Now it's a little bit different. Now you have that traditional one-two punch and both of those guys have to be productive in the scoring column." Teams can designate their best two defenders on Moore and Johnson and force the other guys to step up and that won't be enough.
Ohio State: I love Evan "the villain" Turner. You love Evan "the villain" Turner. Any college basketball fan should love Evan "the villain" Turner. The Buckeyes' biggest problem? Evan "the villain" Turner. They rely on him too much. I can see why. He is awesome. Averaging 19.7 pts., 5.9 assists and 9.3 rebounds all while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 79 percent from the line it is easy to see why he should be a lock for player of the year. The issue is OSU's other guys don't seem to step up when needed. In every single one of their losses, except one (in which Turner played. He was out for several games with a broken back) he was the leading scorer and only got help from one other player. The Buckeyes have three guys who score in the double figures on average other than Turner, but they can't seem to give him enough help on a consistent basis. Come tournament time you need guys who can get it done other than your number one.
West Virginia: The Mountaineers have three solid big men in Desean Butler(17.1 ppg), Kevin Jones (13.7 ppg) and Devin Ebanks (12.4 ppg). Their flaw is lack of great guard play and low three point shooting percentage. Jones is 6'8" and 250 pounds and has the best 3-point percentage on the team (.408). As I have said balance is huge and now that the college game is fueled by great guard play, West Virginia will have difficulites without one of their own.
Villanova: I think Nova is just too small. They have great guard play, but against teams with good inside guys they can stuggle. The Wildcats' tallest player with any real skill is Antonio Pena and he is only 6-8.
New Mexico: The Lobos have four players who all avg. between 10 and 15 points which just shows how balanced they are. I admit I haven't seen them play much, but they have been on fire recently winning 15 straight. They could go to the Elite 8 (depending on matchups of course), but with losses to UNLV, San Deigo State and UNLV they could easily fall to a big time program. They just haven't played anyone and a big school that can match their athletiscm will give them trouble.
Butler: The Bulldogs have a chance to make a run because of their defense. An opponent has only scored over 70 on them once this year. Butler is tough, but with 9 tournament apperances they have been in 0 final fours and I don't think that will change this year. The were dropped by Georgetown, Minnesota and Clemson and UAB, meaning any mid level Big Conference team could knock them out.
Michigan State: I love Tom Izzo. He is one of my favorite coaches. He always has his team ready in tournament time. The Spartans are an excellent rebounding team (39 a game) and they can grind it out. and have a capable bench. Kalin Lucas can make the big bucket, and Raymar Morgan is decent, but even though they average 70 points a game I don't think they can keep up with a team like Kentucky, Kansas, or Cuse.
Kansas: Speaking of the Jayhawks, they are last on the list (for now) because they are the best team on the list. They are 30-2 in a solid conference, averaging over 82 points and 40 rebounds a game. Cole Aldrich is the most fundamental big man in the country (and arguably the best big man in the country) and he is only their fourth leading scorer. Kansas can shoot from treyville. 5 guys shoot 40 percent or better beyond the arc and two average over 50 percent. Sherron Collins is more than capable of making big plays and has been in big games many times before. The Jayhawks are the best team in the land and the deepest team in the land. They are beatable however, Tennessee and Oklahoma state demonstrated that, but there is no formula for how to defeat Kansas. As long as a team doesn't go off (see James Anderson in the Oklahoma State game) or the Jayhawks don't got cold (25.9 percent from behind the arc against Tennessee) they will have their one shining moment.
(Some stats may have changed. Part of this was written early last week. Also if there are any other teams you would like me to breakdown let me know.)
Kinney
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