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Friday, September 10, 2010

I'm going Spread Eagle

Have you ever been so bored at work that you decided to write an NFL picks column? Well I am about to. That is easily next level boredom.

In the past I have picked games straight up. Well I've decided to follow in the steps of my favorite columnist Bill Simmons. I'm picking against the spread this year just to try it out. I'm kinda new to the whole concept I have bet on games before and understand the stuff, but choosing which lines to go with from which site is tough, but I've decided to go with footballlocks, it seems to be the easiest. Maybe I will get into over/under later this year.

The way I am doing it is how my friend (read: bookie) had it set up in college. A push is a win.

For example: Last night I took Minnesota. They were getting five points. They lost 14-9. That mathletes is five points. That's a push therefore I win. If I were betting of course.

So I am 1-0 as of posting this.

Upcoming games:
Giants -6.5 v. Carolina


Hummm... tough one. Love the ground and pound style of Carolina, plus I have D. Williams on my fantasy squads (yes plural I am in more than one league, I need a life seriously), but I am worried about Moore at QB. He is hot and cold. The New Jersey Giants are hosting the game at a brand new field AKA the New Meadowlands and I guess I will take them to cover. Without Peppers The Panthers will have a tough time getting to Eli. I got the G-Men by a TD.

Miami -3 at Buffalo

Being a Bills fan (read: pessimist) I would normally take the Dolphins in this spot, but you know what. It's a new year. I'm on the bandwagon with everyone else once again. Spiller is exciting he can hit a homer every time he touches the ball. Miami is tough running the ball and the addition of Brandon Marshall make them better, but why is everyone on the Chad Henne bandwagon? What has he done? I know Marshall made Orton look good, but is Henne even Orton? I'm not convinced.  Plus how good is Miami's D? They haven't shown me anything. Give me the Bills to cover! (and hopefully win.)

Atlanta -2 at Pittsburgh

I have enjoyed watching Dennis Dixon play football since he was in college, but his talents haven't translated to the pro game as of yet. If we are picking QB's you have to go with Matt Ryan and if everyone says that is the most important position in football then I'm sold. Give me Atlanta -2.

Chicago -6.5 v. Detroit

I'm down on Chicago. Detroit's defense is much improved and the Bears offensive line is not good. I'm going out on a limb, but I'm saying that not only will the Lions cover, they will start off 1-0.

New England -4.5 v. Cincinnati

One of the toughest games to pick for me. Both offenses have plenty of playmakers, but I think this comes down to the defense. "Experts" have repeatedly stated that the Pats defense is weak and that the Bengals D is solid. Well fuck the "experts" I'm going with New England -4.5.

Tampa Bay -3 v. Cleveland

What? Did anyone in Vegas watch the Browns finish the year? They looked much better. Tampa Bay on the other hand didn't do much down the stretch. I know it's a new year and blah, blah, blah, but Cleveland will win 9 times out of 10 over the Bucs. Cleveland +3.

Jacksonville -2.5 v. Denver

The is also among the most difficult of games to pick. Denver has no weapons, no "surprise" factor which they displayed last year and no Brandon Marshall. So this should make the Jags a lock right? WRONG! Denver has the Father of Florida, the Good Shepard of Gainesville, Mr. Tim Tebow! I don't care that he won't play much (if at all). This will be a pro Denver crowd. I'm taking the Broncos +2.5.

Indy -3 at Houston

Anyone remember the last time the Colts lost to Houston? Me neither. Indy -3.

Tennessee -6.5 v. Oakland


This feels like a layup for Tennessee, which worries me. Oakland will be (a bit) better than anyone thinks, but I like the Titans in this one. Titans -6.5

Green Bay -3 at Philly

I saw how Green Bay was torching defenses during the preseason. I know the preseason doesn't matter and blah, blah, blah, but I don't care. Some of that has to translate. Kevin Kolb will be a solid QB, just not this week. A Rodg's arm -3.

San Fran -3 at Seattle

San Fran has a better defense, special teams, WR corp, and running back. The huge ???? is at QB. Week One I expect a heavy, heavy dose of Frank Gore though so it won't matter what the question is he is the answer. San Fran -3.

Arizona -4 at St. Louis

Oh god. What I'm about to do almost feels like a sin. But hey I sin all the time, so screw it. Give me St. Louis and the rookie +4.

Dallas -3.5 at Washington

I think that the Cowboys are a little overhyped. That said Washington is also overhyped. The Cowboys are better over and I think it will be their defense that make the difference. Cowboys -3.5.

Jets -2 at Baltimore

Speaking of overhyped. Are there any teams in the NFL getting more love than these two teams. Why is it the Jets have been anointed a Superbowl contender. Why are they in a commercial with the Saints. They went 9-7 and Rex Ryan got outcoached by Peyton Manning in the AFC Title Game. And Baltimore has a secondary riddled with injuries. This makes them a lock for the Superbowl? What? Now don't get me wrong these are probably two of the better teams in the AFC, but I'm still not convinced that they are even the best teams in their respective divisions. The fact that the Jets are giving points on the road is enough for me though. Give me Baltimore +2. By the way, on my fantasy team I'm starting Boldin despite Revis playing. I hope he beats his ass down.

San Diego -4.5 at Kansas City


I think KC will surprise some people this year. They will be a better team, but this week they won't cover. San Diego -4.5.

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